Search

Strategas: "6 Main Reasons There's Still Time In This U.S. Cycle"

Released: 2/4/2019:

1. Nonfarm payroll growth is experiencing a second wind.

Relevance: On average, only after growth decelerates 2 years does a recession typicaly occur.


2. Labor's share of GDP is meandering higher.

Relevance: On average, labor share of GDP bottoms 3 years before a recession.


3. Wage growth (averge hourly earnings) is still below 4% y/y.

Relevance: Even once wage growth acceslerates to 4%, on average, it is over 2 years before a recession.


4. The yield curve path is unfolding like

1994/1995.

Relevance: On average, the US 2/10 yield curve inverts 1.5 years before a recession.


5. Consumer confidence is falling from exogenous events, but that looks to reverse.

Relevance: On average, consumer confidence plummets 1 year before a recession.


6. PMIs peaked in August 2018.

Relevance: PMI gives (on average) a 3 year lead time.











23 views

These materials have been independently produced by Summit Financial Wealth Advisors.
Summit Financial Wealth Advisors is independent of, and has no affiliation with, Schwab Wealth Investment Advisory, Inc. (“SWIA”), Charles Schwab & Co.,Inc. (“CS&Co”), or any of their affiliates (together, “Schwab”). Schwab has not created, supplied, licensed, endorsed, or otherwise sanctioned these materials nor has Schwab independently verified any of the information in them. Institutional
Intelligent Portfolios™ is an automated investment management service for independent
advisors sponsored by SWIA and available exclusively through independent investment
advisory firms like Summit Financial Wealth Advisors. Summit Financial Wealth Advisors, not Schwab, is responsible for advising you on the Program, including recommending and selecting a portfolio appropriate for you and managing your portfolio on a discretionary basis. Your portfolio will be held in a brokerage account at CS&Co. “Institutional Intelligent Portfolios” is a trademark of Charles
Schwab & Co., Inc.

Summit Financial Wealth Advisors is an independent firm with securities offered through Summit Brokerage Services, Inc., Member FINRA, SIPC, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., Member SIPC and TD Ameritrade, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory Services offered separately through Summit Financial Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Adviser.

Check out the backgrounds of our investment professionals on FINRA's BrokerCheck.

326 Heymann Blvd. Lafayette, LA

Office: 337-232-1141

Fax: 337.232.1137   

712 Celebrity Dr. Ruston, LA

Office: 318-255-1005

Fax: 318-255-1005

1890 Hudson Circle Suite 1. Monroe, LA

Office: 318-323-3752

Fax: 318-387-4511

6425 Youree Dr. Ste 285. Shreveport, LA

Office:318-963-8675

Fax: 318-387-4511

© Copyright 2018 Summit Financial Wealth Advisors