Released: 2/4/2019:
1. Nonfarm payroll growth is experiencing a second wind.
Relevance: On average, only after growth decelerates 2 years does a recession typicaly occur.
2. Labor's share of GDP is meandering higher.
Relevance: On average, labor share of GDP bottoms 3 years before a recession.
3. Wage growth (averge hourly earnings) is still below 4% y/y.
Relevance: Even once wage growth acceslerates to 4%, on average, it is over 2 years before a recession.
4. The yield curve path is unfolding like
1994/1995.
Relevance: On average, the US 2/10 yield curve inverts 1.5 years before a recession.
5. Consumer confidence is falling from exogenous events, but that looks to reverse.
Relevance: On average, consumer confidence plummets 1 year before a recession.
6. PMIs peaked in August 2018.
Relevance: PMI gives (on average) a 3 year lead time.
Comments